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Encyclopedia of Casino Twenty-One odds that favor the casino resulting in negative expected return for the player; and Notice that the gambler's fallacy is quite different from the following path of reasoning (which comes to the opposite conclusion): the coin comes up heads more often than tails, so it is not a fair coin, so I will bet that the next toss will be heads also. This is not fallacious, though the first step - the argument from a finite number of observations to a statement of likelihood - is a very delicate matter, and is itself prone to fallacies of its own peculiar kind. Three card poker Insurance is statistically a bad bet for the player who has no direct knowledge nor estimation (e.g. through card counting) of the dealer's 'hole card' because Insurance has a negative expected value for the player. Even for the player who has been dealt a natural (a two-card 21) it is unwise to take Insurance. In such a case, the dealer usually asks the player "Even money?" This means that instead of 3:2, the player with the natural accepts to be paid off at 2:2. Thus it is exactly the same thing as buying Insurance, losing the Insurance bet and getting paid 3:2 on the natural. (If the player with the natural refuses "even money", and the dealer turns over a natural, it is a tie.) The player's disadvantage is a result of the casino not paying winning wagers according to the game's "true odds", which are the payouts that would be expected considering the odds of a wager either winning or losing. For example, if a game is played by wagering on the number that would result from the roll of one die, true odds would be 6 times the amount wagered since there is a 1 in 6 chance of any single number appearing. However, the casino may only pay 5 times the amount wagered for a winning wager. The slot machines are where casinos would like you to play your free cash. But smart players give them a swerve and head straight to the card tables. To be more precise they head for the Blackjack table.
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Macintosh Poker Rooms This is the fallacious step in the argument. If the coin is fair, then by definition the probability of tails must always be .5, never more (or less), and the probability of heads must always be .5, never less (or more). While a run of five heads is only 1 in 32 (0.03125), it is 1 in 32 before the coin is first tossed. After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so they don't count. The probability of five consecutive heads is the same as four successive heads followed by one tails. Tails is no more likely. Each of the two possible outcomes has equal probability no matter how many times the coin has been flipped previously and no matter what the result. Reasoning that it is more likely that the next toss will be a tail than a head due to the past tosses is the fallacy. The fallacy is the idea that a run of luck in the past somehow influences the odds of a bet in the future. If the 'Banker' has an initial total of 8 or 9, this is a natural and neither the 'Player' nor the 'Banker' draw further cards. In some LV Strip casinos you may still be able to find the older version of the multi-deck shoe game, where dealer stands on soft 17; those are usually high minimum ($50 or more) tables. This version is much more advantageous to the player, but requires a slightly modified basic strategy table. Basic strategy for other decks. Blackjack hands are scored by their point total. The hand with the highest total wins as long as it doesn't exceed 21; a hand with a higher total than 21 is said to bust. Cards 2 through 10 are worth their face value, and face cards (jack, queen, king) are also worth 10. An ace's value is 11 unless this would cause the player to bust, in which case it is worth 1. A hand in which an ace's value is counted as 11 is called a soft hand. Wikiquote has a collection of quotations related to: A couple already has two daughters. What is the probability that the next child is a son? (Answer: 0.5) [if we assume the gender of a child is completely random, and that a male or female child is equally likely, either or both of which may be incorrect.] The reason they lose so much is they pile money into the virtual slot machines hoping to land a big payout. The combination of above ensures that the casino will in the vast majority of cases come out ahead in the long run. For an illustration, see this Gambler's Ruin simulation: [1] Random number games are based upon the selection of random numbers, either from a computerized random number generator or from other gaming equipment. Random number games may be played at a table, such as Roulette, or through the purchase of paper tickets or cards, such as Keno or Bingo. Craps
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